How Labour can win the Election
Therese Arseneau notes some reasons why Labour thinks it can win the election this year: And it's not just MMP. Among them are that the left generally get more votes than the right, more New Zealanders identify themselves as supporters of Labour than National, and that under MMP Labour and its allies have generally got more votes than National and its allies under MMP.
But according to figures put into the virtual election calculator Labour can virtually govern on 38% of the vote, provided the good luck goes its way.Labour's dream scenario depends on a mixture of good management and good luck, but Labour needs more luck than good management - and at the moment it doesn't have either.
But the question is - who is the Maori Party an ally of? Because whoever the party aligns themselves to will determine the election result should both the two main parties poll well. If the Maori Party decide to hit the cross benches, Labour can not win unless its vote radically increases.
In order for National to to get in power they need a higher percentage of the vote -around 47% - than Labour does to secure a fourth term. That is because the Left ( Progressives and Greens)are likely to have more seats than the Right (United Future and Act).
But how low that Labour percentage can get to depends on the number of seats National gets, which in turn is dependant on the minor party list vote. For example if National get 60 seats, they are safe, provided that the Maori party list vote is not under 2.5%, and causing a substantial overhang. But even if National gets 59 seats and Labour get just 48 seats, it's likely that whoever gets the Maori Party onside governs. And that could be Labour, even without United Future should the non-parliamentary minor party split be sufficiently high.
That's MMP for you.
In sum, based on current polling Labour will need the Maori Party to govern. In the above figures, both will need the Maori Party. But if National gets 47% of the vote it's home and hosed with United Future and Act, assuming both get into Parliament.
The above assumes New Zealand First gets no seats and takes into account the wasted vote.
Labels: Election 2008