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Thursday, July 31, 2008

How Labour can win the Election


Therese Arseneau notes some reasons why Labour thinks it can win the election this year: And it's not just MMP. Among them are that the left generally get more votes than the right, more New Zealanders identify themselves as supporters of Labour than National, and that under MMP Labour and its allies have generally got more votes than National and its allies under MMP.

But according to figures put into the virtual election calculator Labour can virtually govern on 38% of the vote, provided the good luck goes its way.Labour's dream scenario depends on a mixture of good management and good luck, but Labour needs more luck than good management - and at the moment it doesn't have either.

But the question is - who is the Maori Party an ally of? Because whoever the party aligns themselves to will determine the election result should both the two main parties poll well. If the Maori Party decide to hit the cross benches, Labour can not win unless its vote radically increases.

In order for National to to get in power they need a higher percentage of the vote -around 47% - than Labour does to secure a fourth term. That is because the Left ( Progressives and Greens)are likely to have more seats than the Right (United Future and Act).

But how low that Labour percentage can get to depends on the number of seats National gets, which in turn is dependant on the minor party list vote. For example if National get 60 seats, they are safe, provided that the Maori party list vote is not under 2.5%, and causing a substantial overhang. But even if National gets 59 seats and Labour get just 48 seats, it's likely that whoever gets the Maori Party onside governs. And that could be Labour, even without United Future should the non-parliamentary minor party split be sufficiently high.

That's MMP for you.

In sum, based on current polling Labour will need the Maori Party to govern. In the above figures, both will need the Maori Party. But if National gets 47% of the vote it's home and hosed with United Future and Act, assuming both get into Parliament.

The above assumes New Zealand First gets no seats and takes into account the wasted vote.

Labels:

Scoopit!

5 Comments:

Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

The chance of the Maori Party going into coalition with Labour is remote.

There goes your whole argument.

July 29, 2008 at 9:36 PM  
Blogger Dave said...

Not really, I didn't say that so it doesn't destroy my argument. My argument is whoever the Maori Party goes with will be the Government. If they go with no-one, National will Govern if they get 47%.

It's that simple. Policy, leaders and nice smiles are irrelevant.

July 29, 2008 at 9:51 PM  
Blogger Truth Seeker said...

The party with the most seats will likely be given the first opportunity to form a government. Ultimately, they will have to stand up to a vote of confidence from the whole House. If they lose that, the G-G could conceivably call another election or - more likely - seek other workable majorities. That may involve inviting the party that came second to see if it can for majority. If it can't, then there would almost certainly be a new election. That sort of thing can go on for a while. Some countries effectively outlaw it by saying there can be no more elections....just take your seats in the House and get one with.....whatever you can get on with. Norway is one of those, I believe.

Mainstream New Zealand is larger, but more fragmented. The largest minority is more cohesive, but still a minority.

They hate MMP because it means they have to take account of the view of others. Their clear inability to work well and play wel with others is the best reason to NOT have FPP.....as they would be able to behave in the arrogant, concrete-eared way they have in the past and have never been able to shed.

That Labour is partly in trouble due to the grossly mis-named "anti-smacking" law is a testament to the profound - yet arrogant - ignorance that distinguishes the right on that issue and many others.

Being proudly unknowing appears to be the defining feature of far too many Kiwis these days. They will never agree, of course, because they don't know what they don;t know....and don't want to know.

July 29, 2008 at 11:14 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Of trust seeker

Do f*ck off.

If you think most people want rid of Helen Clark and this govt due to arrogant ignorance then now you understand why NZers want rid of Helen Clark and this govt.

By the way, today's parliament was a farce which did not credit to any govt party or the opposition.

NZers are just sick of all this BS and want change.

showmethetaxcut

July 29, 2008 at 11:30 PM  
Blogger Chuck said...

Dave, let us hope the assumption is correct and that Winston First gets no seats. Have you heard of any polling in the Tauranga electorate to support this assumption?

August 1, 2008 at 11:04 AM  

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