The Maori Party and Maori aspirations post election

Matthew Hooton writes ( in the Sunday Star Times today ) what I consider to be the most "on the button" column on the Maori Party in the MSM to date. Yet that's not saying much.

Here's my own column length post.

Hooton believes the Maori Party could hold the balance of power and if it sits on the cross benches that is veiled support of the governing party. That governing party, likely to be National, has a better view of whanau and a closer voting record than Labour on Maori aspirations, including self determination, Treaty settlements and devolution. Hooton writes that if the Maori Party rejects National and it governs alone, that would be the end of the Maori Party when National abolishes the Maori seats.

Yet Maori Party aspirations in Government is not about the Treaty, it is not even about National or Labour. It is about Maori development and Maori aspirations of which the Treaty is part. I believe the Maori Party view a ministerial warrant an essential part of this in terms of its role post November 8. However, which party they go with or the form of any agreement - coalition, cooperation - is less important than the function in terms of the value to Maori developmental aspirations. These aspirations are broader than how they fit into Government - they relate to governance, autonomy, mana motuhake, tino rangitiratanga, and self-determination, and I really wish the mainstream media understood this..

What Hooton didn't say was that there is no way that the Maori Party will go with Labour unless it is forced to do so to achieve Maori aspirations. And it won't be forced to do so. That is why National will govern. But will the party go as far as to entrench the Maori seats to get Maori support? Hooton thinks it is possible.

And there is the Ratana support of the Maori seats. November 8, as Whale Oil seems to have recently discovered, is the most important date in the Ratana Church. This year is the 90th anniversary of the date that Ratana sought to have the Treaty of Waitangi made part of the constitution. Yet Whale Oil considers that Helen Clark chose the election date was chosen because so many Ratana will be busy and she thinks they won't vote.

I disagree totally. I don't think she chose November 8 for that reason as I think she knows that Ratana will vote - and in force.

Ratana will be out in force as it wants the Treaty entrenched - and note that this does not necessarily mean that the Maori seats will be entrenched, as the Maori seats are not Treaty based. However, for the first time, a party in this election who has a real chance of gaining power has a policy to entrench the Treaty - as well as the Maori seats. Ratana was founded on the need to make the Treaty as part of the constitution. A petition to that effect was presented to King George V by Ratana, and Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia is proud of the fact that her grandfather accompanied Ratana to London to present it.

I believe that Labour sees the Maori Party as a threat. They should. I believe Hone Hariwira is has joined the "don't vote Labour" brigade, and is telling iwi and hapu to vote either Maori Party or National with the party vote. Yet National does not see the Maori Party as a threat, and with Maori Party kingmaking pressure, could be swayed to commit to supporting a bill to entrench the Treaty or to progress Maori development aspirations in an autonomous way and Hariwira, Turia and Pita Sharples know this.

( update BTW, Hariwira was on Agenda yesterday and the transcript is here.)

Given that Turia has turned her back on Labour, I think she will tell iwi, backed up with the reasons I have stated, that she will be more happy talking to National than Labour post November 8 - and that her first preference is not a formal coalition agreement. She needs iwi and hapu support.

This election is all about trust(s)

By now you'll know that Helen Clark has said this election is about trust.


hat tip Whale Oil

It's not what it is, its what you call it that counts for Labour

Remember 20 hours free childcare? It is not free, but its called 20 hours free. But it can't be free when you have to pay for it. Think of a reverse situation - the poor people on the sickness benefit. Many of them are not sick, they are unemployed on the wrong benefit,but they are not called unemployed. We have had laws that ban smacking because people say that smacking is child abuse - its not child abuse, but it's called child abuse. We have people in the highest levels in the Labour party who lie, execpt what they say is not called a lie, its called a " misspoke".

Helen Clark's relationship with Peter Davis is called a marriage - but is it really?

Remember police quotas? Police have denied they are have quotas for issuing tickets. They have quotas all right, but they are not called quotas., they're called "minimum expectations", according to a recent leaked email.

Waitemata road policing manager Superintendent John Kelly sets out ticket targets for his district's highway patrol officers in five "fatal" offence categories.The categories are speeding, alcohol, restraints (e.g. seatbelts and child carseats), dangerous/careless driving and high-risk driving.Each fulltime-equivalent officer is expected to issue 1420 tickets a year, including 560 for speeding, the email says.

With 225 traffic officers on New Zealand roads, that means 875 tickets should be dished out to motorists throughout the country every day. And the email points out in bold type that the figures are "the minimum expectation".

If a minimum expectation is not a quota, what is it?

Perhaps we can safely say, also, that we have a Government. But does it govern - or is it just called a Government?

Vote for me

The Greens have started its campaign with advertising. They want your vote.

The is time the aim is to make an emotional, heartfelt connection with voters to appeal to them to think about the bigger picture and the solutions the Green Party stands for on Election Day,” says Dr Russel Norman, Green Party Co-Leader.

So, the Greens want you to vote for them but they're not telling you why. An appeal to emotional heartfelt connections don't make anyone think about solutions, especially when they are not offered.

I'd vote Green if they'd give me a reason to. I thought a campaign was about providing that reason, not by issuing billboards that look like postage stamps.

Update It appears I'm not alone in thinking that too.

How Labour can win the Election

Therese Arseneau notes some reasons why Labour thinks it can win the election this year: And it's not just MMP. Among them are that the left generally get more votes than the right, more New Zealanders identify themselves as supporters of Labour than National, and that under MMP Labour and its allies have generally got more votes than National and its allies under MMP.

But according to figures put into the virtual election calculator Labour can virtually govern on 38% of the vote, provided the good luck goes its way.Labour's dream scenario depends on a mixture of good management and good luck, but Labour needs more luck than good management - and at the moment it doesn't have either.

But the question is - who is the Maori Party an ally of? Because whoever the party aligns themselves to will determine the election result should both the two main parties poll well. If the Maori Party decide to hit the cross benches, Labour can not win unless its vote radically increases.

In order for National to to get in power they need a higher percentage of the vote -around 47% - than Labour does to secure a fourth term. That is because the Left ( Progressives and Greens)are likely to have more seats than the Right (United Future and Act).

But how low that Labour percentage can get to depends on the number of seats National gets, which in turn is dependant on the minor party list vote. For example if National get 60 seats, they are safe, provided that the Maori party list vote is not under 2.5%, and causing a substantial overhang. But even if National gets 59 seats and Labour get just 48 seats, it's likely that whoever gets the Maori Party onside governs. And that could be Labour, even without United Future should the non-parliamentary minor party split be sufficiently high.

That's MMP for you.

In sum, based on current polling Labour will need the Maori Party to govern. In the above figures, both will need the Maori Party. But if National gets 47% of the vote it's home and hosed with United Future and Act, assuming both get into Parliament.

The above assumes New Zealand First gets no seats and takes into account the wasted vote.