What's the point of pollsters registering intentions to vote for a party that doesn't exist?

The Herald digi poll is out. National is ahead of Labour, of course, and the Greens reach the 5% threshold. The Maori Party is polling nearly double that of NZ First. The Kiwi Party is on 0.2, twice that of United Future.

The Christian Heritage Party, which doesn`t exist, is also polling 0.2% , twice that of United Future. One wonders what supporters of the Christian Heritage Party will do when they get to the polling booth.

How weird is this?

No Right Turn points out that, according to the graphic for the latest Herald digipoll, [story here], the Christian Heritage Party - which disbanded in 2006 after leader Graham Capill's rape conviction- is polling 0.4%, ahead of both the Alliance and United Future. So, a party that doesn't exist is polling higher than a party headed by a Minister.

But it gets better.

The CHP's vote has doubled since April - and it is the only party to achieve that feat as well. [ Update: Not true, Act also did]. The CHP is currently the biggest polling party outside parliament - but its support will dramatically drop on election night!

I had a chat to Audrey Young to get a further breakdown of this month's poll. The combined support for the the Alliance, United Future, Jim Anderton's Progressives, and the Baldock/Copeland Kiwi Party is lower than the Christian Heritage party vote. Add to this the El Jefe's Pacific Party, and the Family Party (Destiny in drag) who didn't poll.

Collectively these six parties are polling lower than the CHP. They have three Ministers, one former Minister, an additional current MP and a former MP, whereas the CHP has never had an elected MP and doesn't even exist.

And, still, people want to vote for them. Now that's really weird. Even Audrey Young is baffled why, month after month, people indicate a CHP vote when asked "which party will you cast your party vote for if an election was held today?"

Update watch the Kiwi, Family, and United Future vote jump at the next big poll or the one after. If the former two get their act together and let everyone know who they are. Most people - even Christians - don't know the difference between Kiwi and Family parties.

Going into bat for Graham Capill

The media is reporting that former Christian Heritage leader and sex offender Graham Capill has been denied parole again because his victims - and the Parole Board - believed he would pose an undue risk to others in the community. He has four years and nine months to go to complete his sentence.

I have received a copy of the decision of the Parole Board (Update: it is here [PDF])

While I'm no fan of Capill, I have known for some time that he has been trying for some time now to get into a programme for sex offenders. He has not been able to do so, which was why he was denied parole each time. Yet, according to the decision of the Parole Board, he may not get the treatment until 2011 - in which case a parole hearing next year will be a pointless exercise and a fait accompli.

But what the media does not report is that there has been a bit of a disagreement about which sex offender programme Capill should be on. He wants to go on one- the STOP programme - a community-based programme, but his psychologists want him to go on the Kia Marama one, in prison. He is waiting to be treated on the latter programme. Yet Capill may not even get accepted onto that programme until 2011, because the 60-bed unit is always full, and he is down the waiting list behind those who have been behind bars for longer.

What that means that Capill has had no treatment at all, partly because of a scrap about treatment providers, partly because the two treatment providers have no available beds in their 60-bed units. Irrespective of what you think of criminal offending, after four years in prison, it that is not good enough. Prisoners should get treatment before reaching two-thirds of their sentence - otherwise why have parole after one-third for these people?

If the Government wants to put more people in prison, it should build more treatment units to treat them - otherwise prisoners will be denied parole because they have had no rehabilitation or treatment - only for many to be released without treatment at the end of their sentence, angry, and just as likely to reoffend.

update Since writing this post I have been advised that the reason Capill preferred the STOP programme to the Kia Marama one was because the former one aligned more to Christian principles. I pointed out that Capill is a sex offender, so his "Christian principles" probably don't count for much.

update2 The Press has a story this morning( Wednesday) covering some of the above points. It also says:

The Corrections Department said yesterday that Kia Marama was prioritised for prisoners near the end of their sentences.

"The programmes are designed to assist offenders live an offence-free life in the community," it said. "For this reason, they are best attended close to the point at which the offender will be released.

"We aim to schedule eligible offenders about one year prior to their parole date. For example, a prisoner on a nine-year sentence who needs to attend the Kia Marama programme will be at the end of his fifth year in prison.

Pacific Party is nearly officially history

In March the Family Party was deregistered by the electoral Commission. At the time I said that as three Christian parties - Family, Pacific and Christian Heritage - had departed from the political scene - two of their leaders are in prison, and the third is associated with a man who claims he is the physical manifestation of God, it was time to deregister the Pacific Party.

The Pacific Party was formed to attack Labour's "ungodly laws", but was the only political party registered while its leader was facing charges of ungodly lawlessness (which he lied about, and is consequently now in prison).

Four months after that post, the Pacific Party is finally going to be consigned to the dustbin.God is happy.

Kiwi Party secretary needs a jolly good smack

The Kiwi Party- that’s the Larry Baldock party, not the Family/Destiny one - has forgotten to apply for free broadcasting time for this year’s election. Obviously their smacking referendum is more important than talking to the public about getting into parliament.

Despite having three former MP’s in the party, one of them being acting party secretary Bernie Ogilvy, you have to wonder about their priorities. Perhaps the smacking referendum is taking up too much of this party`s time. They won't get anywhere near Parliament if they continue to poll just 0.1% more than the Christian Heritage Party, a party that doesn`t even exist

What is the election about?

John Armstrong, in the Herald wrote this today

The election is no longer about tax. It is about which party can best convince the voters its policies will shorten the length and depth of that recession.

It is a pity he is not correct. The election should be about policy. But the electorate doesn't care about policy - if it did it would be asking for policy at public meetings, demanding policy via letters to newspaper editors, and at Marae gatherings.

How many of you know which party has policies that will shorten recessions?

This election is about which parties the voters would like to see form a government. You can bet most people who support NZ First have no clue as to what its policies are. And as for the people who support Christian Heritage, who does not exist, its obvious that ideology, rather than policies, is what people vote for.Some even vote for personalities. If Sarah Palin was the Prime Minister of this country, I've no doubt Labour would be much higher in the polls.

But I'm not sure that Helen Clark winking at TV cameras will lift Labour's poll rating. But if she was to resign it may.

Appointments the Governments can consider

Reflecting on the Dom Post story that the Government is looking to appoint Dr Cullen to chair a major SOE, here are some other appointments that David Farrar has suggested.

* Winston Peters to chair the Asia 2000 Foundation
* Peter Brown to chair the Immigration Review Board
* Clint Rickards as CEO of the Ministry of Women’s Affairs

Some of his readers have suggested Parekura Horomia as head of the Earthquake Commission, Brian Tamaki as head of the Aids Foundation and Kyle Chapman as Race Relations Commissioner.

Here's some of my suggested appointments:

David Lane as Chief Censor
Bob McCoskrie as Childrens Commissioner
Garth McVicar as head of the Parole Board
Ken Orr and Gordon Copeland as members of the Abortion Supervisory Committee.
Dean Wickliffe as Chief Justice.
Ron Mark - Minister of Maori Affairs
Jim Bailey - Principal Family Court Judge
Barbara Faithfull as head of the AIDS Foundation.
Graham Capill - boss of Family Planning Association

And wouldn't it be interesting if Hector Westfold was letters editor for the Dominion Post, Craig Young was the leader of a revamped Christian Heritage Party, Don Brash was leader of the Maori Party, and Sonny Thomas was Bishop of the Destiny Church.

Capill out of jail soon?

Former Christian Heritage leader Graham Capill comes up for parole soon after serving a third of his sentence. Would you let him out?