Labour's polling is the lowest this year

The Recent Roy Morgan Poll has Labour on 29%, the lowest this year. Taking into account the margin of error, Labour's polling is around the same mark as its gap with National.

Labour lap-blog The Standard thought the last poll made grim reading for the left. This one is worse. The scary thing is that NZ First is the fourth most popular party, polling more than Act, Progressives and United Future combined. Now if Helen Clark was the NZ First leader, they could even make a fist of it at the election next year.But then the NZ Fist jokes will start up again, and start to sound a bit queer.

Labour needs to start being an opposition.

Goff appears happy with electoral suicide

Well, Goff got his bounce in the polls he was looking for when he did his Nationhood speech. The problem though, is he doesn't know if it was because of the Nationhood speech or because of a National dip consequent to passing the the ETS, and announcements on ACC.

Labour is still only on 30.8% with Goff on 8% as preferred Prime Minister. Goff appears happy, even though the shift is within the margin of error.

I’m finally getting the chance to get around, to talk to more New Zealanders, to meet more New Zealanders, and speak out on their behalf

I wonder how many of these people are Maori. If Goff wants another rise in the polls - but at the expense of Maori, it won't do him any good, as he won't be able to form a government if he is going to alienate the Maori Party. It's not just time to go back to the drawing board for Labour - its time to get a new drawing board and another person to hold the pencil. Only then will Labour have a substantive rise in the polls when the Nats dont make mistakes.

Nobody wants to be Labour's leader

Phil Goff' support has halved in the latest ONE News Colmar-Brunton poll. Only 5% like Goff, and that was before the awful speech last week. Shane Jones doesn't want to be Labour's leader yet. National is on 53%, Labour slips back to 31%, the Greens bounce back to 7%, the Maori Party's on 3% and ACT on 2%.

If Goff's support drops any further, it will be within the margin of error. When did that last happen to any National or Labour leader? Perhaps its time for Charles Chauvel to run a Facebook campaign for a leader. I hear Chauvel is quite good on Facebook.

Labour out of '20's but still with the less support than Social Credit in 1981

The corks will be popping on the 9th floor as Helen Clark and Judith Tizard high five each other in their delight that Labour is no longer polling in the '20's.

Still, Labour has less support than Social Credit did in 1981 before the election.

Tonight's TV1 poll: National 55, Labour 29

This is just getting silly. These aren't seats, they are percentages. If this poll translates to seats in the House and the Maori Party get all the Maori seats, even with the overhang, National can govern alone.

Although Greens and NZ First seem to be picking up votes from Labour, one wonders why 6% see Winston Peters as preferred PM but not many of them willing to vote NZ First, I don't know...

Labour has no friends. Well, maybe Jim Anderton, that's all. Not even the Greens are friends now. Still waiting for the Greens to come out and say they`ll either go with National or with the party with the highest number of seats after the election...

What's the point of pollsters registering intentions to vote for a party that doesn't exist?

The Herald digi poll is out. National is ahead of Labour, of course, and the Greens reach the 5% threshold. The Maori Party is polling nearly double that of NZ First. The Kiwi Party is on 0.2, twice that of United Future.

The Christian Heritage Party, which doesn`t exist, is also polling 0.2% , twice that of United Future. One wonders what supporters of the Christian Heritage Party will do when they get to the polling booth.

Roy Morgan Poll extends gap between National and Labour

Labour up, National up by more at the expense of the Greens. Around 10% said they wouldnt vote and 9.5% didnt know who they`d vote for. Gary Morgan says Helen Clark has no hope unless interest rates fall.

I was polled for this one. Guess who I said I`d cast my party vote for?

Marae digipoll gives Maori Party a clean sweep

The latest Marae poll indicates that the Maori Party candidates have double the support of the Labour Party in the Maori seats. All the Maori seats.

And, of course, that's where it matters, given that there will likely be an overhang. In the party votes it is neck and neck between Labour and the Maori Party 37 and 38 percent respectively with 15 percent indicating a party vote for National. Interestingly of the 38 percent of Maori Party supporters, 57.1 percent want a coalition with Labour, and 42.9 percent with National.

Helen Clark's response makes me laugh. "We`re going in highly competitive on the party vote".

Well, of course you`ll be competitive if the party that secures the highest proportion of the vote is likely to have all its votes wasted - in terms of the Maori seats at least - and you`re a close second because more and more have deserted your party.

Why would anyone party vote the Maori party anyway if they wanted their vote to count? It won't affect the result of the Maori seats as the proportion of the party vote will likely be less than the proportion of elected candidates.

Helen Clark is walking the plank. A long plank. She appears to have written off any chance of securing Maori seats.

NB: A third of those polled were Maori in General seats, and more Maori in General seats need to vote the Maori Party to reduce or maintain the overhang. My comment on why would anyone want to list vote the Maori party was directed at those who want the Maori Party MPs in Parliament - and elected to use the party vote to achieve that. However, it's not inconceivable for the Maori party to get list seats if enough in General electorates vote for the party.

Latest Colmar Brunton Poll - and its bad news again for Clark

In May last year I predicted a National/ Maori government and in 2006 a Labour loss.

Jordon Carter responded by stating

In 1999 the Nats had run out of ideas and their vote was too low to maintain power - Labour just got in instead. In 1984 Muldoon had destroyed the economy and had the whole of liberal New Zealand lined up against him. Neither of these situations is relevant to Labour in 2008. The economy is singing, and the government shows no signs of running out of ideas.

What's changed since then is that Jordon Carter is a Labour candidate and that support for both National and Maori Party has increased. National's support has almost doubled since the 2002 election.

What hasn`t changed is that Jordan is wrong.

Poll Results
National 53%
Labour 34%
Greens 6%
NZ First 1.6%
Maori Party 3.3%
Act 0.9%

Key 36%, Clark 27%

In the recent Roy Morgan and Herald polls, the Greens were on 9.3 and 6.5 percent respectively and the Maori Party was on 1 and 2 percent. Now the Maori party is first cab off the rank. Labour is down and National has its best result since the 1999 Election.

When Labours slide started in November the Greens and NZ First were over the 5 percent threshold. It's a different ballgame now. Labour and NZ First are being deserted for National and the Maori Party and Clark is not wanted any more. Many people seen to have forgetten that Helen Clark was asked to resign as leader only months before the election in 1996. Will it happen in 2008?

It will be fascinating to see if the Maori Party can poll 5 percent before the election - and whether it can hold until polling day. If the Maori Party get around the same as the Greens did in 2005 ( 5.1 percent) - it would be a wasted vote if they get six seats.

Labour's slide continues

Last weeks poll had Labour 6 points down on 34 percent and National up 3 to 48 percent.

The latest poll widens the gap betwen the two parties, giving National 51.3 percent and Labour 38.1 percent. Wait for these guys to say it is a rogue poll or to say absolutely nothing, in true Standard form.


Labour has gone up because its drop in the past poll was huge. The Greens have been deserted in Auckland, some going to Labour but more going to National. NZ First gets less than 5 percent as well (again).

The support for the Electoral Finance bill is starting to bite NZ First and the Greens -as well as Labour who is running out of coalition support. National doesn`t need coalition support based on this poll as it could govern alone.

Latest poll has Labour 14 points behind National

Labour's slide has started

National is up 3 points to 48 percent, while Labour is down 6.5 points to 34 percent. The Greens are up 1 to 7.5 percent and New Zealand First has broken the five percent threshold for the first time since April.