Sunday, March 02, 2008

Marae digipoll gives Maori Party a clean sweep

The latest Marae poll indicates that the Maori Party candidates have double the support of the Labour Party in the Maori seats. All the Maori seats.

And, of course, that's where it matters, given that there will likely be an overhang. In the party votes it is neck and neck between Labour and the Maori Party 37 and 38 percent respectively with 15 percent indicating a party vote for National. Interestingly of the 38 percent of Maori Party supporters, 57.1 percent want a coalition with Labour, and 42.9 percent with National.

Helen Clark's response makes me laugh. "We`re going in highly competitive on the party vote".

Well, of course you`ll be competitive if the party that secures the highest proportion of the vote is likely to have all its votes wasted - in terms of the Maori seats at least - and you`re a close second because more and more have deserted your party.

Why would anyone party vote the Maori party anyway if they wanted their vote to count? It won't affect the result of the Maori seats as the proportion of the party vote will likely be less than the proportion of elected candidates.

Helen Clark is walking the plank. A long plank. She appears to have written off any chance of securing Maori seats.

NB: A third of those polled were Maori in General seats, and more Maori in General seats need to vote the Maori Party to reduce or maintain the overhang. My comment on why would anyone want to list vote the Maori party was directed at those who want the Maori Party MPs in Parliament - and elected to use the party vote to achieve that. However, it's not inconceivable for the Maori party to get list seats if enough in General electorates vote for the party.




Blogger Graeme Edgeler said...

Why party vote Maori? The smaller the overhang the greater the Maori Party say in Parliament 7 seats in a 120 seat Parliament is a higher proportion of votes than 7 seats of a 127 seat Parliament would be.

March 3, 2008 at 1:15 AM  
Blogger Swimming said...

clarification: why would anyone party vote Maori, was directed at those in the Maori electorates who want to see the Maori Party in Parlament but may vote a Labour or National candidate, believing the party vote counts in an MMP arena.

Sure, anyone voting Maori - including those in general eletorates -will contribute towards a reduced overhang should enough people vote.

By your correct assumption, you could say that Jim Anderton has too much say in Parliament in relation to the proportion of his party vote ;-)

March 3, 2008 at 7:55 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

" Interestingly of the 38 percent of Maori Party supporters, 57.1 percent want a coalition with Labour, and 42.9 percent with National."

Isn't the 57.1/42.9 stat from the herald poll? It's not clear from your post, but if it is I'd check out I/S's post:

and judge for yourself it's usefullness. (29.5% M.o.E.)

March 3, 2008 at 7:51 PM  

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