Minor parties may see a resurgence

Phil Goff says he is happy to work with Winston Peters in Parliament after the election. That’s easy for him to say. Phil Goff may not be Labour’s leader and Peters may not be in Parliament.

However with Goff shooting himself in the foot so much that it is expected that he will do it again will lead to many deserting the party for the Greens and NZ First. Ironically NZ First will only get into Parliament if Labours vote collapses further and bleeds votes to NZ First. The Greens are principled, NZ First has a loud leader, and UnitedFuture has an MP who is plugging away at his electorate and his ministerial job with his support pretty much constant. I wouldn’t be surprised if John Key, closer to the election, was to publicly encourage Ohariu voters to vote Peter Dunne instead of Katrina Shanks.

As Labour is an unreliable opposition and is not a government in waiting, the Greens are the left’s only hope of principled left politics until Goff is removed. Those who don’t want to vote Green are going for NZ First. Let’s see if a poll out tomorrow reflects that. The last Colmar Brunton poll put Labour on 34 percent and I’d be surprised if tomorrow’s poll puts Labour much above 31.5 percent.

It is not only those on the left that have deserted Labour. Many of the middle voters deserted Labour some time ago and voted National in 2008, and they have remained with National.[ Update Some in the Ratana Church are calling its members to abandon Labour and are not impressed with their member being 55th on the list.]

National looks like it will sleepwalk to victory in this year’s election. Will many of Labour’s activists now be foot soldiers for the Greens because they don’t want to defend a party led by Phil Goff? Or will they concentrate on certain candidates in the same way they would do in a First Past the Post election?

Is it a big deal if you break the law if you are an amateur and have Ministerial connections?

note: post retitled to reflect post content
Helen Clark has has accepted NZ First’s word that NZ First made a mistake in not declaring the $50,000 to the Electoral authorities - but it is no big deal because NZ First is an amateur organisation

Miss Clark said she was taking NZ First’s explanation at face value: “They’re a small party with a rather amateur organisation, these things can happen.

I’m a small individual with a rather amateur car. If I make a mistake and go a bit too fast and get caught speeding, can I say it was a mistake if I have to go to court to pay a fine? And like NZ First redeclaring its illegal 2005 Election return, could I reverse really fast on the same area of road to undo the lawbreaking?

Or if I get caught smacking my kids - as it is against the law - and get hauled before the courts, could I say "I'm an amateur parent, with a rather small family, these things can happen."

Or would I only get off lawbreaking if I was associated with a Minister of the Crown, like David Cunliffe did when he smacked his kids.

NZ First donations

The SFO has got the Spencer Trust accounts now. We hope they have them all. The Spencer Trust - which Winston Peters said he had never heard of, even though his brother was running it on behalf of his party - was formed in August 2005 and the $25,000 from Bob Jones was paid into the Spencer Trust on 19 August and then paid to NZ First a week later as part of a $50,000 payment from multiple donors.
The reference is D/C meaning it was paid by direct credit. But Jones wrote a cheque! Where was that cheque banked into? Does anyone know whether the "or bearer" was crossed out on the cheque? If not, the cheque was either doctored or NZ First has two Spencer Trust accounts. Who paid the blacked out money? Was this account set up to get the Bob Jones and others money and hide it from electoral authorities, given that Jones' money was the first entry in the account.

It's a fair bet that Helen Clark knew that Peters had broken the law before the privileges committee announced its inquiry.

This year, NZF filed a late donation return and used the ‘reasonable’ excuse for its lateness that they had to wait for Winston to return from overseas before they could file it. Is it false?

But what did Winston have to do with it?

Rimutaka electorate will be interesting

Ron Mark is standing for Rimutaka for NZ First this election. Young Chris Hipkins is the Labour candidate. Ron Mark could win this and if he does, Winston Peters will be in Parliament.
hattip

NZ First's $158,000

Just wondering whether the $158,000 went to the Spencer Trust. Perhaps divvied up in nine different amounts. I've seen no reports on whether it has or it hasn't and no journalist appears to have asked. Because the trust is a charity for Winston, isn't it?

Winston First

NZ First's Tauranga Branch has voted that NZ First should kill the Electoral Finance Bill in line with the party's fundamental principles on election reform.

Electoral Reform will be determined by the electors. The Government's duty will be to ensure the fair representation of all views and the holding of appropriate referenda.

In other words, Winston Peters shows disregard for his party's principles. NZ First will be history after the election.