Why are minor party Maori ministers within Cabinet so important to Maori?

A Horizon poll –of fewer than 500 – indicates that Maori do not want the Maori or Mana parties to enter a National Cabinet. They’d rather them enter a Labour cabinet or support a government on an issue by issue basis- as opposed to entering government under the Maori Party's current arrangements.

It’s quite clear that Mana will not have a presence in a Labour Cabinet after the election, if Phil Goff is to be believed. But it is unlikely that any Mana or Maori party MP will be a Cabinet minister whoever is the government after the election.

The Horizon media releasesays that just 16.1% of Maori want the Maori Party to again accept Cabinet seats in a National led Government, 43.5% in a Labour led Government. Again? There has never been any ministers of support parties in Cabinet - including the Maori Party.

Fewer Maori want Mana to accept cabinet seats. Only 9.7% want Mana to accept Cabinet seats in a National led Government, but 38.7% in a Labour led one. It is unclear how many wanted them to accept Cabinet posts – indeed, or to refuse Cabinet posts - irrespective of whoever is the government.

Notwithstanding the agree to disagree procedures, I really wonder why so many Maori are so keen to have their minor parties accept Cabinet posts, along with the associated collective responsibility - particularly given the implosion and loss of support of minor coalition parties with Maori Cabinet Ministers. Just 2.8% of Maori surveyed would prefer the Maori Party to govern with ministers outside of cabinet (our current arrangements), with less than 2% stating likewise for the Mana Party.

Around a third wanted each party to offer support to the government on an issue by issue basis. However there was no breakdown of the split on offering support to a Labour-led government as opposed to a National government as the question wasn’t asked.

The best chance of Mana and Maori party MPs have of being ministers is outside of Cabinet. It looks like many Maori who support these two parties are going to be unhappy after the election.

Poll results are here.

Just as an aside, I wonder how many would like the Mana and Maori parties to do a pre-election deal. Because those who do will be disappointed too. It won't happen. Both parties will do their own thing - and no doubt attack each other.

The relationship between the Mana and Maori parties

Now that the Te Tai Tokerau by-election is over , questions are arising as to whether the Mana and Maori parties will be able to work together.

I doubt it. Activists and politicians tend to clash.

Hone Harawira is making noises that both can work together, and believes that a relationship between Mana and Maori is best for Maori. Yet his priority is not working with other parties, it is building the Mana movement within parliament.

If there is not a good relationship between the two parties, Harawira has no answer to questions around Mana Party gains for
Maori except for standing against the Maori Party.

So, nothing’s changed then. He has staked his political future in working with the Maori Party or taking it over. If he can’t do either, Harawira will be an ineffective MP with a leader’s budget.

Pita Sharples says that that the Maori Party will work with Mana to same extent as he would with other parties. If Harawira works with the Maori Party on his terms only, the Maori Party “ won’t be having a bar of him” according to Pita Sharples on Morning Report today.

There is no way that the Maori Party and the Mana Party will be able to work together for mutual benefit, with Harawira in activist mode. However Mana may not contest other Maori seats if the party thinks it will get enough list votes to get a couple of extra MPs. The Maori Party will try to work with Mana, but they'll be political opponents until the election – with Harawira bad-mouthing off in the media - and that won’t be good for Maori political aspirations.

Hone’s second mandate

Make no mistake, Hone Harawira’s win in this weekend’s by-election was not about securing a mandate as the MP for Te Tai Tokerau – it was about securing a mandate as the parliamentary leader of the Mana Party. The Mana Party was registered by the Electoral Commission just over 24 hours before yesterdays polling closed at 7pm - and its leader was unemployed.

That mandate as a leader of a parliamentary political party was more important to Harawira than being just the MP for Te Tai Tokerau – although a by-election success had to happen for the former to occur. It was also more important than holding onto the deputy chairmanship of the Maori Affairs Select Committee. That’s is now lost as Harawira re-enters Parliament.

So for 21 sitting days this year, Harawira will be the leader of parliament’s newest political party, and he'll get funding as the parliamentary party leader. Formerly the holder of the Maori seat with the highest majority a 6000+ majority, he now has the slimmest majority in the Maori electorate – 867.

This win will make it more likely for people to party vote Mana at the general election. I think that Mana Party will be focusing on Harawira’s seat and the party vote in 2011 to build the Mana Party parliamentary representation around Harawira in Parliament. If Mana gets around 2 per cent of the vote in the general election, I suspect the party couldn’t care less whether two of the three MPs are list MPs or electorate MPs if Harawira gets his seat.

I suspect that the Maori Party will contest Te Tai Tokerau with a weak candidate, even Solomon Tipene. I also suspect that the Maori Party will lose at least two seats at the general election to Labour.

While the balance of the Maori seats will be distributed between the Mana and Maori parties, how that is done - and what these deals are - will determine the influence the holders of Maori seats have in parliament next year.

Mana Party could be good for Labour

Some within the Mana Party are getting excited with a recent Horizon poll that shows that the Mana Party could win 12.5 percent of electorate and 15.1 percent of party votes cast by Maori. But around double that (28 percent) are undecided.

Yet most of those indicating they may join the Mana party – that’s 42.5 percent of those who voted the Maori Party in 2008, and 30.5 percent of Maori nationwide – have indicated they’ll vote other parties. Horizon’s summary is here., showing that the Mana party will split the Maori vote and Labour could be the winner.

Also, a full 53 percent think the by-election – if it happens, and I think it probably will no matter what the people of Te Tai Tokerau think - is a waste of money, but two-thirds want the Maori Party to stand a candidate. Wonder if Hone Harawira will listen to that?

The other trouble for Hone Harawira and company is that, according to the poll, the Maori Party will get even more votes than Mana – and the Labour Party will get more still, with 22.6 per cent of party votes. The party vote will cause the Maori Party no problems, unless that is a reflection of a drop in electorate candidates' votes, as it is reliant on the electorate vote for its members. However the Mana party will be more reliant on the party vote to get more than two members in the House.

Of those who voted for the Maori Party in the Maori electorate, just under 40 percent would vote for them in 2011, and just a third would re-cast a party vote for the Maori Party. And 15.1 percent of around 17 per cent of the population won’t cut it, making the Mana party politically irrelevant.

The survey was conducted through recruitments to a new panel, where Maori participants went into a draw to win $1000 cash and a Wi-Fi iPad2.

In this survey Labour was seen as most likely to advance Maori on employment (52 percent, Maori Party 50.6 percent, Mana 42.4 percent). The Maori Party is ahead on advancing Maori education (60.1percent , Labour 50.3percent, Mana 42.9 percent) and health (62.3 percent, Labour 47.8 percent, Mana 43.8 percent).

One wonders how Mana Party supporters have an idea of Mana policy on health, employment and education when its policies are to abolish GST, and replace with a "Hone Heke" tax, nationalise all monopolies and duopolies (I wonder how many Mana Party supporters know what a duopoly is), and effectively bring back compulsory union membership.

The poll also found that of those who would consider becoming a member of the Mana party, less than half would vote for the party on either the electorate vote or the party vote on election day. The survey didn’t ask why a participant would consider becoming a member. Wonder what they would most likely say: "because I can, bro", or "because I *really* like the policy on duopolies"?

It's Hon. Hone now

from the brand new Mana Party website.

MANA, movement of the people, is Aotearoa’s newest political force, led by Hon Hone Harawira, Independent MP for Tai Tokerau.

He is actually the MP for Te Tai Tokerau, not the Hon. Hone Harawira. Not a particularly great start for a new political movement that is after the "intelligent" Maori vote.

Candidate Annette Sykes estimated there were 700-1000 people at the party's launch yesterday. The media more accurately said 300, as you can see from the photo.

Apparently the Mana Party has 600 paid members, so it can now be registered as a political party.