The only way Labour can lose the election

Many commentators have said Labour will lose the election because it passed the anti-smacking legislation - others have pointed to the prostitution and civil union legislation. Still others have said it will lose because it passed the Electoral Finance Act. Many have said it will be because of the Foreshore and Seabed Act and they are getting warmer.

On current polling, Labour will lose the election only if the holders of the Maori seat don't support Labour - either in Government or as a supporting party. And given that the Maori Party is likely to hold at least six of these seats, the Maori Party - a party that was formed in opposition to the Foreshore and Seabed legislation - may decide the Government.

That's because whoever had the support of the holders of the Maori seats post electoral reform has formed the Government.

Why would that change in 2008?

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