Party lists

Don’t you think it is a little strange that, of those who head their political party’s respective lists, one has resigned from his party, another has resigned as leader for the backbenches, and another is not leader - nor has he joined three of his colleagues in parliament. Two further parties have just their top-ranked person in parliament, and another party's top-ranked candidate was not even in Parliament immediately before the election, but now is.

First time that’s happened immediately after an election.

Election top fives

Good
Increase in Green’s party vote with some good new candidates
Peter Dunne winning Ohariu
Higher than expected Conservative vote – practically ensuring National did not get a majority
MMP being retained and reviewed
Government looks likely to be quickly formed

Not so good
James Shaw missing out as Green’s vote wasn’t high enough
NZ First getting back into parliament
68% turnout – worst voter turnout since the 1880s.
The cup of tea affecting the election result
Banks getting Epsom

Weird
The election night Labour and National tie in Christchurch Central
NZ First flatlining on 6.8 percent for the entire night
The Conservative Party more than doubling Act’s vote
34 percent of voters voting for change filling out referendum papers incorrectly
Green Party vote was nearly more than Labours in Wellington Central

Why Peter Dunne won with an increased majority

Well, I have been saying for a while now that Peter Dunne will win Ohariu – and win with an increased majority.

Peter Dunne not only won Ohariu with an increased majority, he increased that majority by more than 50 percent and won 39 percent of the vote. While National’s Katrina Shanks’ vote dropped to her lowest in three elections,( as did the Greens’ constituent vote) Labour’s Charles Chauvel got 315 more votes than he did in 2008- but Dunne got 925 more – and that’s with a lower turnout.

Chauvel conceded before 10pm, but has yet to ring Dunne – in fact he has yet to ring Dunne to concede the 2008 election. He also came second in 2005 and contested an electorate in 1990. I heard that a reporter tried to get in to Chauvel’s electorate party only to be told she was not wanted.

However United Future’s party vote dropped and I recon the party would have got more had the tea tape controversy not assisted NZ First. In fact the electorate vote dropped too, perhaps reflecting the fact that only 65 percent bothered to turn up to vote – the lowest since about 1884. But it wasn’t the low turn-out or any “deal” between National and Dunne that won the seat for Dunne – more people in Ohariu simply want Dunne as their MP. Dunne had a 10 point plan for the electorate, the other candidates did not. Dunne has a firm grip on the electorate – even amongst the increasing number of people who party vote Green. Fewer voted Labour too – the party vote dropped to 26 percent from 32.8 percent, despite Labour campaigners being the most visible in the electorate.

It appears that some Dunne voters, tiring of the incumbent voted for Chauvel as there was no way Katrina Shanks was going to win, but more former Shanks voters voted for Dunne – with many staying at home. An increasing proportion of those who voted Dunne party voted Green instead of Labour. National also got a good showing - 49 percent of the party vote.

It is clear that Chauvel is the wrong Labour candidate for Ohariu. He has lost three times in a row, despite Labour's footsoldiers campaigning increasingly harder. If Labour wants to win Ohariu, Dunne would either need to retire, or Labour would have to select a candidate that more people will vote for – and who wants to represent his electorate a little more than Chauvel does.

MMP

Vote MMP.

That is all.

Who I`m voting for

One blogger has encouraged us to advise who we would be voting for this election.

I live in the Ohariu electorate. Yes, the electorate that Peter Dunne has been holding for 27 years. In 2011 I am giving my both my electorate vote and my party vote to someone and some party other than I did in 2008.

We have four MPs in our electorate in Parliament. Greens’ Gareth Hughes just wants the party vote. Nationals Katrina Shanks wants the electorate vote, but none of her parliamentary colleagues want her to have it. Charles Chauvel wants the electorate vote and so does his parliamentary colleagues. United Future’s Peter Dunne doesn’t have any parliamentary colleagues and will be out of Parliament if he loses his seat – so he needs to win. Irrespective if Chauvel wins, he makes it to Labour’s front bench anyway. Hughes and Shanks will also be in Parliament on the list. So, in terms of who represents me as electorate MP, it’s down to Labour’s Charles Chauvel and UnitedFuture’s Peter Dunne. There’s about 1000 votes in it.

Peter Dunne will be getting my vote. He lives in the electorate,unlike the other three, he knows the electorate and at meetings he has best explained what he will do for the electorate if he is successful. He has a 10 point plan. He has been the most publicly visible MP in the campaign and can work with the incoming government.

The party that will get my vote has run a good campaign. It has concentrated on policy, as opposed to personality or scandals. It has good policies on welfare, education, employment, and wants to address inequality.It will also work with the incoming government. It has some good new candidates, particularly Holly Walker and James Shaw. So the Greens will be getting my party vote this year.

I`m not sure how many Dunne voters will vote Green this year, but there you go. There`ll be at least one. And I`ll be voting for the fairest voting system we have – MMP.