Mana Party could be good for Labour

Some within the Mana Party are getting excited with a recent Horizon poll that shows that the Mana Party could win 12.5 percent of electorate and 15.1 percent of party votes cast by Maori. But around double that (28 percent) are undecided.

Yet most of those indicating they may join the Mana party – that’s 42.5 percent of those who voted the Maori Party in 2008, and 30.5 percent of Maori nationwide – have indicated they’ll vote other parties. Horizon’s summary is here., showing that the Mana party will split the Maori vote and Labour could be the winner.

Also, a full 53 percent think the by-election – if it happens, and I think it probably will no matter what the people of Te Tai Tokerau think - is a waste of money, but two-thirds want the Maori Party to stand a candidate. Wonder if Hone Harawira will listen to that?

The other trouble for Hone Harawira and company is that, according to the poll, the Maori Party will get even more votes than Mana – and the Labour Party will get more still, with 22.6 per cent of party votes. The party vote will cause the Maori Party no problems, unless that is a reflection of a drop in electorate candidates' votes, as it is reliant on the electorate vote for its members. However the Mana party will be more reliant on the party vote to get more than two members in the House.

Of those who voted for the Maori Party in the Maori electorate, just under 40 percent would vote for them in 2011, and just a third would re-cast a party vote for the Maori Party. And 15.1 percent of around 17 per cent of the population won’t cut it, making the Mana party politically irrelevant.

The survey was conducted through recruitments to a new panel, where Maori participants went into a draw to win $1000 cash and a Wi-Fi iPad2.

In this survey Labour was seen as most likely to advance Maori on employment (52 percent, Maori Party 50.6 percent, Mana 42.4 percent). The Maori Party is ahead on advancing Maori education (60.1percent , Labour 50.3percent, Mana 42.9 percent) and health (62.3 percent, Labour 47.8 percent, Mana 43.8 percent).

One wonders how Mana Party supporters have an idea of Mana policy on health, employment and education when its policies are to abolish GST, and replace with a "Hone Heke" tax, nationalise all monopolies and duopolies (I wonder how many Mana Party supporters know what a duopoly is), and effectively bring back compulsory union membership.

The poll also found that of those who would consider becoming a member of the Mana party, less than half would vote for the party on either the electorate vote or the party vote on election day. The survey didn’t ask why a participant would consider becoming a member. Wonder what they would most likely say: "because I can, bro", or "because I *really* like the policy on duopolies"?