Sunday, April 17, 2011

Labour polls 27.1 percent

TV3 polls are typically the most accurate of all polls; they were leading up to the 2008 election, so a poll in which Labour will get just 34 MPs should be worrying for Labour -they`ll lose both their senior and junior whips and a bunch of list MPs should this be the election night poll. Its their lowest poll result since 1996. After the election there will be just three new Labour MPs - one on a high list position and two presented with safe seats that Judith Tizard could win.The TV3 Reid Research poll puts National on 57.5 per cent support, giving them 71 seats - more than twice as many as Labour - and more than a 30 percent gap. National's highest ever poll was 60 percent.

This poll reveals that 15.4 percent are either unsure or vote forthe minor parties. In the minor parties, the Greens got 7.7 percent, NZ First 2.8 percent ( both down) , the Maori Party 2.5 percent and Act 1.7 percent ( both up). UnitedFuture remains on 0.2 percent. The poll's margin of error is 3.1 percent.

Labour's MPs seem in defeat mode already, indicating that Goff will take the bullet for Labour's election loss. If Labour had have rolled Goff a lot earlier, like in 2009 about the time I called it - its poll result would not have been so low. In fact, it would have done Labour a world of good. And for not rolling Goff back then, Labour only has itself to blame.

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