Labour’s list

The Colmar Brunton poll is out tonight putting Labour on 34 percent, giving it 42 seats. I think that’s a little optimistic.

Interestingly, Labour's 2011 list is out also and rather than reproducing it, you can see it here. Should tonight's poll hold on election day, Labour will have several new MP’s including Jerome Mika (who failed in his attempt to be Labour's candidate for Manurewa), Andrew Little and Deborah Mahuta-Coyle, even if National doesn’t take any seats from Labour.

Based on 31.5 percent, which I think will be more realistic, and based on every Labour MP retaining their electorate seat which may not be as realistic, Steve Chadwick will lose her seat.Incidentially, Mahuta-Coyle's husband used to be a ministerial advisor to Chadwick. Ashraf Choudhary and Damien O'Connor, who are not on the list and unlikely to win electorates, will also be out. New MPs are likely to be Little (at 15 on the list) and Mahuta-Coyle,(at 26). Michael Wood, who lost the recent Botany by-election should be the first on the list outside Parliament and will get into parliament on a resignation - or will it be Steve Chadwick,or Kate Sutton, next on the list who will get parachuted in, assuming Phil Twyford wins his seat.Who knows with Labour.

However if Labour’s vote on election day drops below 30%, Stuart Nash will be out of Parliament. Andrew Little will be Labour's sole new list MP, and Megan Woods and David Clark the new electorate MPs ( to replace Jim Anderton and Pete Hodgson respectively).

Ian-Lees Galloway won Labour its only seat outside metropolitan centres at the last election but has been given second lowest list spot of current MPs.Lousia Wall is not even on the list. Neither is Liane Dalziel but both are expected to win their seats. Jeremy Greenbrook Held (candidate for Helensville) has no chance - up against John Key and is not even on the list. Kris Faafoi will be out if Hekia Parata wins Mana. And as for iPredict predicting that Peter Dunne will lose his seat to Charles Chauvel, I doubt that`ll happen.

Having Jordan Carter, Michael Bott and Josie Pagani (who also failed in an attempt to be selected as a by-election candidate this year) so low in the list is just a protection of the old guard, like Raymond Huo, Rajen Prasad, Carol Beaumont and Darien Fenton.

Had Labour put talented newcomers higher up the list, it would then be seen as encouraging new talent. Also, of the top 15, all but two have a promotion. Just two have lost rankings – the sole two Maori MPs from the Maori seats. Guess if you are Maori and are planning to stand for Labour and want to get promoted, your only option is to get on the list - unless you are gay.