My picks for the election
I have done fairly well with my election predictions. Here's my best ten. I correctly predicted:
1. The election date.
2. The demise of NZ First out of Parliament.
3. A National minority government with Act and United Future having ministerial roles.
4. Maori Party winning at least five of the Maori seats, but not all. (Although to be fair I had predicted six earlier in the year and later revised it).
5. Maori Party siding with National and having ministers outside cabinet.
6. Maori Party not going into formal coalition with any party.
7. Pita Sharples as Maori Affairs Minister.
8. Tariana Turia in a welfare role.
9. A ministerial role in Education and Health for the Maori Party.
10. Maori Party in confidence and supply.
That's not bad, if I may say so. Particularly as some of the predictions were made last year. The big one I missed out on was I predicted Act to have three seats, not five. Had Act got three seats, I would have been pretty much bang on, given that I predicted the Greens would get 8 seats, with United Future and Progressives 1 each, which they all did. I also correctly predicted that the Christian Parties would get no MPs, but that wasn't particularly hard. I thought Act may have a co-operation agreement, not confidence and supply. I also think Dunne will be Minister of Revenue again but I expected him to be in cabinet. Still, I though the picks were impressive.
updateIt's just been announced Dunne is Revenue Minister and associate Health Minister. I forgot to predict the latter. Sorry.