Sunday, November 16, 2008

My picks for the election

I have done fairly well with my election predictions. Here's my best ten. I correctly predicted:
1. The election date.
2. The demise of NZ First out of Parliament.
3. A National minority government with Act and United Future having ministerial roles.
4. Maori Party winning at least five of the Maori seats, but not all. (Although to be fair I had predicted six earlier in the year and later revised it).
5. Maori Party siding with National and having ministers outside cabinet.
6. Maori Party not going into formal coalition with any party.
7. Pita Sharples as Maori Affairs Minister.
8. Tariana Turia in a welfare role.
9. A ministerial role in Education and Health for the Maori Party.
10. Maori Party in confidence and supply.

That's not bad, if I may say so. Particularly as some of the predictions were made last year. The big one I missed out on was I predicted Act to have three seats, not five. Had Act got three seats, I would have been pretty much bang on, given that I predicted the Greens would get 8 seats, with United Future and Progressives 1 each, which they all did. I also correctly predicted that the Christian Parties would get no MPs, but that wasn't particularly hard. I thought Act may have a co-operation agreement, not confidence and supply. I also think Dunne will be Minister of Revenue again but I expected him to be in cabinet. Still, I though the picks were impressive.

updateIt's just been announced Dunne is Revenue Minister and associate Health Minister. I forgot to predict the latter. Sorry.


Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Well done Dave. Here's another pick which wasn't far off the mark.

November 16, 2008 at 8:02 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Maori Party (and United Future and ACT), just as New Zealand First and United Future in the last Parliament are in formal coalition with the leading party in Government.

Just because they don't want to call it a coalition doesn't mean it isn't exactly that.

November 17, 2008 at 11:28 AM  
Blogger Swimming said...

No they`re not in coalition - if the three minor parties were in coalition, its ministers would be a party to collective cabinet responsibility - not just in their own portfolios.

If they were in coalitin there agreements would be called coalition agreements.

November 17, 2008 at 11:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Following the 2005 arrangement being agreed, Jonathon Boston, Professor of Public Policy at VUW stated:

“NZ First is part of a four-party coalition government. They and United Future are part of the Government by virtue of their leaders having ministerial warrants and serving as part of the executive. End of story.”

November 17, 2008 at 12:22 PM  
Blogger Swimming said...

Yes, I am aware of that. He is correct that the ministers are part of the Government, but most disagree that the rest of the party is part of the government. Even Boston, now I think.

November 17, 2008 at 12:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I could also add that a big part of National isn't part of the executive government.

And if this is a National minority government with support on confidence and supply from three parties, why do all the agreements refer to a National-led government. Shouldn't that be a "National government"? Which government is National merely leading, if not one in which United Future, ACT and the Maaori Party play a part?

November 17, 2008 at 1:33 PM  
Blogger Swimming said...

Its a National-led government because there are ministers in that govt that are not in National. Simple. really. A party that has a supply and confidence is not part of govt if it has no members of the executive. And I think you know that as well as I do. So why ask?

November 17, 2008 at 1:57 PM  

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