Up to 40 percent of the Maori electorate support the Maori Party
This election is about the Maori vote - because that vote will decide the election. The media knows this, and knows that an increasing Maori Party electorate vote could reduce the overhang - but less likely lead to a Labour government it is seeking.
Perhaps that is why in its latest Marae poll ( which polled more than twice as many non- Maori as Maori), it chose not to differentiate the vote of Maori between the general and Maori electorates.This is significant given that a higher proportion of Maori in general electorate seats are likely to list vote Labour.
According to recent polling, Maori do support Labour - but one in five Maori have indicated they`ll vote for the Maori Party. But in the Maori electorate thats even higher - except that the media don't want you to know that as it has not split up the Maori vote between the two electorates. But pollsters have told me that Maori electorate support the Maori Party is a lot more than 20 per cent - in Tamaki Makaurau it is 36 percent.
The Maori Party could make a clean sweep of the seats as well. If this election is a close contest between the centre left and the centre right, National will benefit more than Labour as the fewer seats the Maori Party wins, the harder it may be for National to govern.