Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Maori Party needs to be in Government after the election

Some time ago I mentioned that the party next in power will be the party that has the most friends. Problem is that all National's friends are losing support and instead of supporting those friends they are supporting National. Labour's friends deserted them long ago. The Greens tried to Make friends with the Maori Party but that didn't work.

Current polling will indicate that National doesn't need friends, but I have always maintained that its best friend should be the Maori Party. I've been consistently saying it for at least 15 months. Now Richard Long is singing the same tune.
It's the choice of partner that is going to cause surprise in many quarters.Wise heads in National have recognised that it has to be the Maori Party: nothing else is viable long term. Forget United Future's Peter Dunne. He will be back with one seat only.Forget ACT. Rodney Hide may have another benchmate after the election, but not much more. Their caucuses could be held, as they say, in a phone box.Forget the Greens. Their policies and constituency would make a deal with National too difficult. That leaves NZ First, if Winston Peters can get his party over the 5 per cent threshold, or the Maori Party. And as unlikely as it seems from the outside, a Maori Party- National accommodation is achievable.
National will be silly not to go into coalition with the Maori Party, or view them as the senior minor party, even if the other minor parties lift their vote.

But imagine Derek Fox as broadcasting minister!

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Based on current polling the Greens might be gone. If the Greens and NZF were both out, everyone else's votes would count more. In this scenario National could well have enough seats to govern alone.

If at least one of those parties return the result will be more questionable, but National won't be short of coalition partners:
- I expect Act votes to increase as people realise National's policy is just photocopied from Labour.
- If The Family Party can gain a seat and a similar level of votes to Christian parties in the past we could have 2-3 seats, or more. If Act could get 4 seats and Family 2, that is another six seats that could well be plenty to get National over 50% of the house without having to even consider UF or Maori. And both Act and Family could well get more seats than that.

They should remain friendly to Maori just in case, but I wouldn't expect National to need them.

August 19, 2008 at 2:33 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

yip i gave a speech to a bunch of women with late lambs recently and said the same thing... by all accounts there has been quite a bit of korero between the nats and the brown brothers ( and sisters)

August 19, 2008 at 8:20 PM  
Blogger Swimming said...

If The Family Party can gain a seat and a similar level of votes to Christian parties in the past we could have 2-3 seats
Oh yeah right.. since when have the Christian parties come anywhere near parliament - the closest was the Christian coalition - all the Christain vote - and they didn't get 5% - they got 4.6% Now we have the Kiwi Party Destiny Party and possible the Pacific party going for the christian vote to split it open.

August 19, 2008 at 8:29 PM  
Blogger Just my opinion said...

The christian parties will not get seats. End of story. We know this because Labour simply have to mention religious political intervention and everybody quakes in their boots.

As for why National need to get into bed with the Maori Party, I can see the benefits - Maori will be associated with a party that is more freemarket than Labour and who preaches less welfare and statism than Labour, which we all know is far healthier for Maori (and everybody else) than what they are being used for now.

Of course Nationals actual "brand" of freemarket, less statist/welfare dependency is heavily watered down and pretty weak - but it is a start!

However the most important thing for the Nats is that the Maori vote and the seats they provide will ensure National will get in Government. Lets be honest here, the Maori bloc with the National bloc is well over 50% and it is a safety blanket for Key and co. If the Maori Party was a hardline marxist party we wouldn't be having this discussion :)

My preferable coalition is ACT, National, Maori. That way the Maori Party is exposed to a more pure free market approach that ACT advocates which will rub off on them, just like the Nats will. And the ACT Party also has a close working relationship with the MP already, as ACT gives the MP their proxy votes now and then.

So overall a good thing!

August 22, 2008 at 2:06 AM  

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