Latest Colmar Brunton Poll - and its bad news again for Clark

In May last year I predicted a National/ Maori government and in 2006 a Labour loss.

Jordon Carter responded by stating

In 1999 the Nats had run out of ideas and their vote was too low to maintain power - Labour just got in instead. In 1984 Muldoon had destroyed the economy and had the whole of liberal New Zealand lined up against him. Neither of these situations is relevant to Labour in 2008. The economy is singing, and the government shows no signs of running out of ideas.

What's changed since then is that Jordon Carter is a Labour candidate and that support for both National and Maori Party has increased. National's support has almost doubled since the 2002 election.

What hasn`t changed is that Jordan is wrong.

Poll Results
National 53%
Labour 34%
Greens 6%
NZ First 1.6%
Maori Party 3.3%
Act 0.9%

Key 36%, Clark 27%

In the recent Roy Morgan and Herald polls, the Greens were on 9.3 and 6.5 percent respectively and the Maori Party was on 1 and 2 percent. Now the Maori party is first cab off the rank. Labour is down and National has its best result since the 1999 Election.

When Labours slide started in November the Greens and NZ First were over the 5 percent threshold. It's a different ballgame now. Labour and NZ First are being deserted for National and the Maori Party and Clark is not wanted any more. Many people seen to have forgetten that Helen Clark was asked to resign as leader only months before the election in 1996. Will it happen in 2008?

It will be fascinating to see if the Maori Party can poll 5 percent before the election - and whether it can hold until polling day. If the Maori Party get around the same as the Greens did in 2005 ( 5.1 percent) - it would be a wasted vote if they get six seats.