Sunday, January 27, 2008

Greens rocket up in latest Herald poll

Two polls, two different results.

The Greens have 9.3 percent in the latest Herald poll. That is either an inflated percentage that won't last, or some on the left and centre left are deserting the main parties for the Greens. Some floaters initially deserted Labour for National and are deciding that supporting the left may be a good idea after all - but instead of supporting Labour, they would support its most likely coalition partner unless Labour changes its leader. Many Labour supporters have been turned off their perferred party because of Helen Clark well before this poll. Yet the gap betwen the two main parties has narrowed to 8.8 percent as a result of support to the left and away from National and the Maori Party, who are on 1 percent.

This poll further indicates that National needs to take the Maori Party more seriously than any other political party if it wants to Govern. Maori Party polling means nothing given that it will win most of the Maori seats.

On the other hand the earlier Roy Morgan Poll (which polled more than twice the number of the Herald poll) shows about a third of the electorate support Labour and the Greens on 6.5 percent. The Maori Party is on 2 percent and NZ First has only been higher than 5 percent once since April .

Translated to seats in the House, assuming the Maori party gets six seats (a four seat overhang with a 123 member parliament) and Anderton and Dunne narrowly win seats, and Act gets a litte more, the minor parties will have 17 seats ( Greens 7, Maori 6, UF, 1, Anderton 1, Act 2). Curently they have 24, meaning that National would have 108 seats betwen them - National on 59 and Labour 47 seats.

On these figures, if NZ First do not get re-elected to Parliament, National will govern and won't need the Maori Party.

I think the next poll will show a reduction of support for the left, and an increase for National in line with Roy Morgan.


Blogger Keeping Stock said...

Dave - do you reckon that this will hurt Labour even more?

January 28, 2008 at 8:41 AM  

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