Friday, September 05, 2008

Roy Morgan Poll

The Roy Morgan Poll is out and The Standard is saying the left is ahead of the right, and has the graph to prove it.

So why does The Standard say the left is ahead? Easy really. They include the Maori Party as part of the left even though its not a left party, allocate it four seats even thought it will get at least six.

Roy Morgan's polling noted that the LPG block has 46 percent; with 58 seats, as Anderton's seat is an overhang seat - and the National/Act/UF block has 47 percent, also getting 58 seats.

But that's irrelevant as the Maori Party hold the balance of power. In fact the Maori Party and National are polling higher than the LPG. So at this stage of the campaign it doesn't matter if the trend is a rising left, because if the right get the Maori party onside means that it's game over for LPG, even if they get more than the right on polling day.

NZPA sums up
The results indicate that although National still holds the lead, Labour and the Greens could outflank it unless one of the minor parties decided to support National.
Really. Stunning analysis. In terms of determining an outcome that's as stunning as saying the results also indicate that although Labour and the Greens are ahead of National, National can outflank it without the Maori Party. And it can. But that's equally irrelevant.

If this poll translates to seats in the house, and the Maori Party abstains on confidence and supply, its a hung parliament.




Anonymous Anonymous said...

Any chance it is a rouge poll? I think the next one may be quite different, as the Winston saga goes on and on, smearing Labour with it.

September 4, 2008 at 11:54 PM  
Blogger Swimming said...

Umm... do you mean a rouge poll or a rogue poll, given rouge is the french word for Labour's colour.. but I do think RM are pretty solid pollsters. And this was taken before the Winston thing blew up badly.

September 5, 2008 at 12:20 AM  
Blogger Nigel Kearney said...

It may not affect the analysis, but the Maori party are going to have more than four seats.

September 5, 2008 at 11:52 AM  

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