Sunday, November 11, 2007

Marae Digipoll

A Marae digipoll out recently has the Maori Party polling well on all seven Maori seats. In other words, the Maori Party could possibly win all seven Maori seats at the next election. If it does, NZ First will be history unless the party gets more than 5%. The Maori Party MP's will have such a overhang - because those on the Maori roll dont tend to list vote the Maori Party all that well, but concentrate on candidates - that there will be more MPs in Parliament.

I have seen the breakdown of the voting figures in the Marae Poll. What is interesting is that although most of those enrolled on the Maori roll indicate a vote for the Maori Party MP's, they are also indicating they will vote fore the Maori Party as well. This is significant as if this turned into the election result, this would take list votes off Labour aand NZ First. So the Maori Party - because of the Maori seats - could stymie NZ First's chances of getting in if Winston Peters doesnt win a seat.

What is clear is that nearly all those who are registered for the Maori seats support the Maori Party or Labour. That was not the case last year when up to 13 percent in last year's poll said they would support NZ First. In this poll National and MZ First is listed under " all overs" that combined, doint even equal 3 percent.
I predict that in 2008 the Maori Party will win at least five seats, with possibly the Labour MPs getting re-elected, although if Maori were smarter they wouldnt vote for Parekura Horomia as he is number 5 on Labour's list and will get in anyway.And what is he doing for Maori?

But if Winston doesnt get his seat back and his party gets .72% fewer votes, the Maori seats will knock NZ First out of Parliament.

More later.


Blogger Nigel Kearney said...

I don't understand what the Maori seats have to do with the survival of NZ First. The days when they could win one are long gone.

To survive, NZ First needs either 5% or to win Tauranga. The outcome in the Maori seats makes no difference.

November 12, 2007 at 9:46 AM  
Blogger Swimming said...

The Maori Seats were the hallmark of NZ First. Maori supported NZ First, so did the pensioners who still do. Now the Maori support has gone to the Maori Party, who rely on the Maori seats to stay in Government. In other words without the Maori seats, NZ First wouldnt be a political force, and that reputation is now waning to the point where NZ First could be out of Parliament.

If there were No Maori Seats, I suspect the Maori party would not have been formed and the Maori vote would be unevenly split between Labour and NZ First.

Why do you think WInston is not as happy as trhe Maori Party about teh retention of the Maori seats? Because he knows that if they go, NZ First and Labour get more votes.

November 12, 2007 at 10:08 AM  

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